IBF: IMPACT BASED FORECAST

WHY IT IS NEEDED

Damage, suffering and the cost of emergency aid will reduce when communities are capable of responding proactively to a disaster through early warning and early action. The goal is to collect and integrate data to predict the impact of impending disasters on vulnerable people that live in areas prone to natural disasters. This process is called Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) and consists of three steps that will be explained below.

HOW WE DO IT

Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) as part of FBF.

1: Understanding Risk
By collecting geographic and population data (where people live and how many people live there), 510 can develop risk models to predict what areas are (most) vulnerable and to assess a community’s risk.

There are many factors in calculating risk. One simple indicator for example is measuring the distance a community lives from a major hospital. The further away they are, the more vulnerable they are. These types of indicators, (and many more) are placed in an interactive map or dashboard called the Community Risk Assessment.


Malawi: Measuring the distance a community lives from a major hospital and placing it in the CRA dashboard

2: Identify Impact


To identify future impact on these communities, 510 combines the Community Risk Assessment data with data from historical events (how & where previous natural disasters took place) and combines it with machine learning techniques. This helps to identify “trigger levels” which indicates what level of risk needs to be reached to start an overall process called Forecast Based Financing.

The purpose of this international system is to provide aid workers in disaster areas with money to take the necessary action in the event of a disaster being predicted.

3: Forecast Triggered Action

Forecast triggered action allows for “early warning early action”. This means that when it is triggered, funds will be released to allow people in the impending disaster areas to get the means to protect themselves. This system, for example, allows communities to evacuate at an early stage.

WHERE WE WORK

We are currently focusing on the following countries:

Peru
Ecuador
Malawi
Zambia
Kenya
Uganda
Ethiopia

WHEN DID WE START
We started working on this project

WHO WE WORK WITH
Forecast-Based Financing was initiated by the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC). The IFRC and several national societies are developing and working on the concept in close collaboration with the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate centre as the main technical reference centre. 

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