IBF: TYPHOON TRIGGER WARNING MODEL

WHY IS IT NEEDED

  • With this model, disaster managers can trigger early actions for typhoon FbF protocols.

WHERE ARE WE IMPLMENTING IT

  • Currently in use in Philippines.

HOW DO WE DO IT

We Built a model based on historical data that captures the relationship between Impact (the house damages) and all the explanatory variables. (1) Whilst using forecast to predict impact.

WHAT ARE THE INPUTS

  • For building the model:

Exposure, Vulnerability & Coping capacity indicators

Historical typhoon data:

Wind speed, rainfall & typhoon path, lose & damage data/Impact data # of damaged houses from government sources.

  • For predicting impact:

Forecasted typhoon path, rainfall & wind speed.

WHAT ARE THE OUTPUTS

  • An automated map of predicted percentage of building damage per municipality. (1)

WHAT COMES NEXT

  • Integrate probabilistic impact prediction in the IBF model.

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