WHY IS IT NEEDED
- With this model, disaster managers can trigger early actions for rainfall induced floods and activate FbF protocols. Impacts can be minimized if “where, when and how heavy the rainfall is” known.
HOW DOES IT WORK
A simple model using only forecast data that can:
- Checks if a 1-day extreme rainfall possibly occurs in the upcoming days (1)
- Triggers a warning about the location, time in case the event happens (2)
WHAT ARE THE INPUTS
- NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), Global Forecast System (GFS)
up to 16 days ahead.
- These 3-hr-timestep precipitation forecasts are converted to 1-day accumulation.
- Definition of a 1-day extreme rainfall: return periods (e.g. 5, 10, 20 yrs.) or quantiles (e.g. .95, .99) of historical daily forecast rainfall data.
WHAT ARE THE OUTPUTS
- The system will send an email with a warning to the National Society disaster manager.
WHAT IS NEXT
- Explore GEFS ensemble members and spread to provide a range of forecast rainfall.
- Integrate impact database and assess the model’s performance.