IBF: FLOOD TRIGGER WARNING MODEL

WHY IS IT NEEDED

  • With this model, disaster managers can trigger early actions for flood FbF protocols.

WHERE ARE WE IMPLMENTING IT

Currently in development for Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya.

HOW DOES IT WORK

  • Connection of input data to geographical area:

Deriving (virtual) station in a river to connect the GloFAS (1) discharge to a district (verified with historical event/impact data) (2)

  • Determination of trigger threshold:

Based on the same historical data a threshold is determined for the trigger model to trigger on, for each district. (3)

  • Run analysis on daily incoming forecast data (see slide on IBF-System)

In the IBF-System

  • Combine trigger with additional data (see slide on IBF-System):

Information on vulnerability, exposure, points of interest etc. is shown in combination of the area at risk for a trigger to support decision making.

WHAT ARE THE INPUTS

The model uses GloFAS ‘s forecasted river discharge on daily scale, 30 days into the future, including probability information with different ensemble runs.

WHAT ARE THE OUTPUTS

  • The system determines if an alert has to be sent by the IBF System
  • The information is integrated in the visualization dashboard

WHAT IS NEXT

  • Automatically calculate the best location for a GloFAS Virtual Station
  • It will be deployed for Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya

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