IBF: DROUGHT TRIGGER WARNING MODEL

WHY IS IT NEEDED

With this model, disaster managers can trigger early actions for drought FbF protocols.

WHERE ARE WE IMPLMENTING IT

Currently in in development for Zimbabwe and Ethiopia.

WHAT DOES IT DO

The model when complete will predict whether or not a drought occurs in a 6-3-month period prior the season estimated based on early actions.

HOW WILL WE DO IT

• Seasonal calendar identify the cropping seasons affected by drought (1)
• Drought impact – make use of proxy indicators (2)

WHAT ARE THE INPUTS

• Livelihood zones/Agro-climatic zones (Ministry of Agriculture)
• Drought indicator linked to the drought impact
• Crop loss – crop yield
• Livestock loss – grassland/ Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)
• Dry Matter Productivity (DMP)

WHAT ARE THE OUTPUTS

• Layers for the different drought impact integrated into the IBF Dashboard for decision making.

WHAT COMES NEXT

• Currently the model is in an early stage. It is expected to have the model ready for Zimbabwe and Ethiopia, by the end of 2020 / early 2021.
• Integrate impact database and assess the model’s performance.
• Use models to identify the best timeframe period to predict droughts.